Science of Climate Change: Workshop Outline

In leading this workshop, I went back and forth between slides I put into Power Point, a NASA website: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/, notes in this outline, and links in this outline to videos.  We also played some games.  Getting enough discharge as you go is essential: mini-sessions, constituency groups, games, connection, more sessions.   (When actually leading the workshop, I had all the major links below open in separate tabs in my browser, so I could easily go between them. The NASA presentation is pretty easy to navigate within.) 

You will want to modify it to your own thinking, but these are some very useful and accurate current resources (December 2016).

You can also use this outline to educate yourself about climate change and climate science, by going through the outline and following the various links and slides.  

I had people start with a mini session about their experiences with science and math in school.  For introductions, we did a pleasant association with science. 

Power Point presentation on History of the Climate (slide 1), then the Greenhouse effect (slide 2)

Photosynthesis (slides 3 & 4)—When sunlight hits the molecule chlorophyll its energy triggers a chemical reaction. The plant splits water into oxygen and hydrogen. Oxygen is released into the atmosphere and other chemical reactions combine the hydrogen with CO2 from from the air to create life sustaining carbohydrates.  Carbohydrates account for 75% of all living and dead organic matter on the planet (all the product of photosynthesis.) 1/3 of the carbon is held in the aboveground biomass, the remaining 2/3 is below ground. When plants die, about 2/3 of the above ground material is released into the atmosphere as CO2.  The remaining 1/3 becomes long-lived soil organic matter. 

Photosynthesis not only produces the plant and roots, also produces a complex blend that feeds soil organisms through the roots.  Thus carbon passes through the roots into the soil.  (10-40% of the photosynthesized carbon ends up in the soil this way.)  Mixes with roots, fungi, bacteria, and inorganic soil particles to create a long-lived, stable form of carbon (humus), perfect for long-term sequestration. Deep soils contain about ½ of the total soil organic carbon and keep it secure.  Humus can persist in the soil for 100-5000 years if not disturbed.

The gases in the atmosphere, Carbon Cycle and 350ppm

Slides 4-12

Accumulated greenhouse gas emissions have formed a warming blanket around the Earth. The most dangerous of these emissions is carbon dioxide (CO2). (Other gasses have more warming potential, but CO2 is far more abundant and dissipates more slowly.) Most human-caused CO2 emissions (80%) result from burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas). Other significant sources are industrial agriculture and deforestation (20%). 

Infographic: Earth’s Carbon Cycle is Off Balance

http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/136/

A Year in the life of Earth’s CO2

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1SgmFa0r04

Slide 13: Global Warming is Happening Now

To keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees C, we must reduce CO2 emissions by 50-80% by the year 2050. 60% of global CO2 emissions come from the world’s 7 largest economies: United States, China, Russia, Brazil, India, German, and the UK (20% are from the U.S. alone; the U.S. population is 5% of the global population.)

To have a 50–50 chance of meeting the goal of keeping the global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees (the desired target stated at COP21 at Paris last year) we can only release about 353 gigatons more CO2 into the atmosphere.  Coal mines and oil and gas wells currently in operation worldwide contain 942 gigatons worth of CO2. Other emissions must also be reduced significantly.

NASA presentation:  http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

NASA 1st page “Climate Change, How Do We Know?”   

Chart showing rise of CO2 since industrial era

We have measured the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere over time by drilling ice cores in Antarctica. This data shows us that the average level of CO2 in the atmosphere for the past 700,000 years has been between 180 and 260 parts per million (ppm) of CO2—reaching a high of 300 ppm in some periods between ice ages. In 1750, at the start of the Industrial Revolution (when humans started using fossil fuels in large quantities), atmospheric CO2 was at 278 ppm. In 2013 it reached 400 ppm. (Currently 405ppm)

In this same time period, the planet has warmed by 1 degree Centigrade. Half of that temperature increase has occurred in the past 35 years. (16 of the 17 hottest years on record have occurred since 2000, and 2014, 2015, and 2016 each set a record for the hottest year.) The climate science community is in agreement that more than a 2 degree Centigrade increase will bring drastic, life-threatening global climate change.  

One of the biggest accomplishments at the United Nations climate talks in Paris in 2015 (COP21) was the agreement by member states to limit emissions and commit to keep temperature rise well below 2 degrees C (and “pursue efforts” to keep it below 1.5 degrees C, acknowledging more recent data that 2 degrees is probably too high, and certainly too high to prevent the loss of many Pacific islands and coastal communities). (Recent NASA reports indicate that the average global temperature passed the 1.5 degree mark in February 2016.

The percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing as the ocean becomes saturated. Natural processes that absorb CO2 cannot keep up. As the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, it becomes more acidic. This combined with increasing ocean temperatures, diminishes its ability to continue absorbing CO2. As a result, more CO2 stays in the atmosphere. Thus a ton of CO2 emissions today results in more heat-trapping capacity in the atmosphere than the same ton emitted decades ago. (In 1960, 400 KG of CO2 remained in the atmosphere per metric ton of CO2 emissions; today 450 KG.)

Scroll down to The Evidence for Climate Change is Compelling

NASA/Sea Level Rise, click EXPAND

Click: Earth’s Vital Signs: Sea Level

Graph: 1.5 mm/year sea level rise in lower graph (1870 to 1990), 3.42 mm/year rise in upper graph (1993 to present)

Infographic: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/infographics/infographic.view.php?id=11298

Miami sea level rise.  Compounded by the fact that the city sits on limestone bedrock, so water can come up from below as water table rises.  (I used first 30-45 seconds)  http://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/460332/is-miami-beach-doomed/

Slide 14 showing cities at risk of flooding with sea level rise

Africa has 320 coastal cities with

Fact Sheet on Climate Change in Africa for more information:

http://www.unep.org/roa/amcen/docs/AMCEN_Events/climate-change/2ndExtra_15Dec/FACT_SHEET_CC_Africa.pdf

Philippines, greater rise (3-5x global average) because warm water

Click on “Carbon Dioxide” at bottom of NASA webpage, look at graphs

Time Series 2002-2014, run the slider showing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Back to: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ scroll down to:

NASA/Global Temperature Rise (EXPAND)—Global temperature has risen fast since January 2015.  February 2016 was the first month in history that global average temperatures passed the 1.5 degree Celsius mark. US average winter temperature was 2.6 C above average, northern hemisphere exceeded 2 degrees in March.  (NASA/BBC News/NY Times)

Video: Global Warming from 1880 to 2015: http://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/139/

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). February 2016 was the most unusually hot month on record.  That’s 1.2°C (2.2°F) higher than the average global temperature in February during the 20th century. NASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency.  (Update: 2016 hottest year on record.)

The average U.S. winter temperature was 27°C (36.8°F)—that’s 2.6°C (4.6°F) above average, well past the 2°C limit. In parts of Africa, the warmest February since 1910 contributed to ongoing drought that has left millions food insecure. And some areas in the Arctic experienced temperatures up to 16°C (29°F) above average leading to dangerously low levels of sea ice.

A daily analysis of global temperatures shows the Northern Hemisphere likely exceeded 2 degrees Celsius above "normal" around March 1, 2016, when measuring from pre-industrial levels.*

Back to: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ scroll down to:

NASA/Warming Ocean (EXPAND)—go to article on Antarctica

60% of planet’s fresh water.  In some places, basal melt exceeds iceberg calving. In other places, the opposite is true. But in total, Antarctic ice shelves lost 2,921 trillion pounds (1,325 trillion kilograms) of ice per year in 2003 to 2008 through basal melt, while iceberg formation accounted for 2,400 trillion pounds (1,089 trillion kilograms) of mass loss each year.  Ice shelves fed by ice flow from the continent, but losing mass too quickly. Melting from warmer water underneath.

The top few meters of the ocean store as much heat as the entire atmosphere.

Slide 18: Food chain--Plankton “fix” about half of the CO2 released into the earth’s atmosphere and over half the oxygen we breath comes from plankton. Due to global warming, the capacity to provide oxygen and support the food chains of the ocean has fallen by 6 percent over the last 30 years. 

Algae and plankton are at the bottom of the food chain. Plankton includes many different kinds of tiny animals, plants, or bacteria that just float and drift in the ocean. (photo) (There are more plankton in the sea than stars in the known universe.) Other tiny animals such as krill (sort of like little shrimp) eat the plankton. Fish and even whales and seals feed on the krill. In some parts of the ocean, krill populations have dropped by over 80 percent because they breed in really cold water near sea ice. The whole food web could come unraveled if there are sharp declines in plankton and krill. 

Plankton video (beautiful)

https://www.ted.com/talks/the_secret_life_of_plankton

Back to: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ scroll down to:

NASA/Shrinking Ice Sheets (EXPAND)—Land ice graphs. Shows how fast Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice. 

When CO2 levels fell below 750 ppm and the Antarctic ice first appeared 34 million years ago, the ice sheet was small and only on land.  Size fluctuated greatly with solar heat.  When CO2 dropped below 600 ppm, ice sheet because more resilient.  32.8 million years ago.  Been pretty stable since then.  Warming decreases resilience, resulting in melting from above and below, and breaking up, creating more exposure to the warmer water.

Many studies of the West Antarctic ice sheet show that it could melt rapidly from a relatively small degree of global warming, raising sea level up to 12 feet. 

Back to: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ scroll down to:

NASA/Declining Arctic Sea Ice (EXPAND)

Lost more than half it’s volume of ice since 1979.  Perennial ice (permanent) given way to ice that freezes and melts every year, thinner, less reflective.  Loss of the reflection of the sun’s heat will add to warming.  The Arctic has been warming at twice the global rate, and a large part of that is driven by reduction in summer and fall sea ice -- a phenomenon that's a self-fulfilling cycle, because reduced ice absorbs more solar warmth that reduces ice levels further.

http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/arctic-sea-ice/

Slider Time Series 1979-2015

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/  shows thickness of Arctic ice in different years 1979 to present. 

Back to: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ scroll down to:

NASA/Glaciers.  Photos.  Click on Global Ice viewer, interesting to look at different parts of the world

From the movie Chasing Ice, show clip of largest glacial calving event recorded:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC3VTgIPoGU

Back to: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ scroll down to:

NASA/Extreme events (EXPAND)—The frequency of climate-related disasters is projected to triple from 2009 to 2030.  Disasters of equivalent strength kill between 12 and 45 times more people in poorer countries than in wealthy ones.

If 3 C warming, in Sub-Saharan Africa, extreme weather will cause dry areas to become drier and wet areas wetter; agriculture yields will suffer from crop failures; and diseases will spread to new altitudes.  Greater impact on PGM because live closer to the land, fewer resources, no safety net. Southern Africa will become drier, while northern African will become more humid, if only in the short term. At 3 degrees of warming, southern Africa would experience permanent drought.

Precipitation Measurement, play Video “A Global Tour of Precipitation”

The Arctic is warming faster than any other place on Earth.  The amplified Arctic warming (10-15 degrees warmer in winter) is dramatically altering weather patterns much farther south. With temperature differences between north and south smaller than in the past, and with more open water and more cloud cover sending and holding moisture in the Arctic atmosphere, weather systems are more frequently distorting the normally west-to-east jet stream into meandering loops, causing more stationary patterns and more frequent extreme events well south of the Arctic, according to the theory.  National Geographic, January 2016 graphics:

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2016/01/arctic-ice-weather-jetstream-text

Back to: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ scroll down to:

NASA/Ocean Acidification (EXPAND)—(Click on the first photo then you can click through them)

The oceans have absorbed about 1/3 of the carbon dioxide produced from human activities since 1800 and about 1/2 of the carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels.  Natural processes that absorb CO2 cannot keep up. As the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, it becomes more acidic. This combined with increasing ocean temperatures, diminishes its ability to continue absorbing CO2. As a result, more CO2 stays in the atmosphere. Hence a ton of CO2 emissions today results in more heat-trapping capacity in the atmosphere than the same ton emitted decades ago. (In 1960, 400 KG of CO2 remained in the atmosphere per metric ton of CO2 emissions; today 450 KG.)  Oceans 30% more acidic now than in 1750.

Coral is a very fragile animal that builds a shell around itself. It lives in harmony with a certain kind of colorful algae. The algae make food through photosynthesis. They share the food with the coral, and, in turn, the coral gives the algae a safe and sunny place to live. They coexist in clean, clear, bright, shallow waters. But the algae cannot carry out photosynthesis in water that is too warm. The corals lose their food sources and become weak, called coral bleaching. Acidification also inhibits coral formation by reducing the seawater levels of the mineral aragonite, which corals use to absorb calcium carbonate and build exoskeletons. 

Further reduction in ph could result in reefs falling apart, loss of important marine habitat.

See slide 16-18 (Land and Ocean Temperatures and Acidification)

95% of the Great Barrier Reef now subject to coral bleaching.  Can be turned around, but only have a few years.  This is the third global coral bleaching since 1998, and scientists have found no evidence of these disasters before the late 20th century.

Slides 19-20 (NASA/Ocean currents) 

Cold water in the North Atlantic sinks very deep and spreads out across the world. The sinking water is replaced by warm water near the surface that moves to the north.

The amount of salt in the ocean water also affects currents. Saltier water is heavier than less salty water. When salty ocean water freezes, the ice can no longer hold on to the salt. Instead, the salt mixes with the water below making it saltier and heavier. Glaciers, land ice and icebergs are made of fresh water, so what happens when this ice melts?

James Hansen, scientist/Columbia University professor, major force in increasing awareness of global climate change since testimony before U.S. Congress in 1988.  In this video, released in April 2016, he talks about his recent research showing global climate change is progressing faster than expected.  Many mini-sessions and repeat of sections needed, but worth working your way through at least part of this talk. 

James Hansen video

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/planet-oz/2016/mar/24/has-veteran-climate-scientist-james-hansen-foretold-the-loss-of-all-coastal-cities-with-latest-study

This article by Bill McKibben: Recalculating the Climate Math says that to have a 50–50 chance of meeting the goal of keeping the global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees (the desired target stated at COP21 at Paris last year) we can only release about 353 gigatons more CO2 into the atmosphere.  Coal mines and oil and gas wells currently in operation worldwide contain 942 gigatons worth of CO2.

That means to have just a break-even chance of meeting the 1.5 degree goal set in Paris, we’ll need to close all of the coal mines and some of the oil and gas fields we’re currently operating long before they’re exhausted.  The “keep it in the ground” slogan of the climate movement is more important than ever.  

This information draws on a report by Oil Change International <http://priceofoil.org/ <http://priceofoil.org/>>, a Washington-based think tank, using data from the Norwegian energy consultants Rystad. “Keeping it in the ground” does not mean stopping all production of fossil fuels instantly.  Stephen Kretzmann, OCI’s executive director says:  “If you let current fields begin their natural decline, you’ll be using 50 percent less oil by 2033.”

I scattered the following videos throughout the day, all of them are good attention outs, nice to do before or after mini-sessions. 

Morgan Freeman, Our Future

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YQIaOldDU8

John Oliver
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjuGCJJUGsg

13 Misconception

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWXoRSIxyIU

Julia Roberts as Mother Nature

https://www.google.com/search?q=julia+roberts+nature+video+youtube&oq=julia+rober&aqs=chrome.3.69i57j0j69i61j69i59j0l2.5355j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

The last four slides (21-24) address some common myths about climate change. 

Enjoy!


Last modified: 2022-05-19 17:01:28+00